President Trump's latest tariff salvo has gone into effect. We’ve seen a doubling of India's rate to 50% for buying Russian oil that the US once begged them to purchase. Swiss diplomats are in emergency sessions after a random 39% shock that makes no sense to fair trade and competition. Meanwhile Toyota just announced it's suspending new model launches.
We are witnessing the most radical reshaping of global trade since the 1930s, compressed into seven chaotic months of Trump’s presidency. The numbers are staggering: effective tariff rates have sextupled from 2.5% to over 18%, the highest since Smoot-Hawley helped trigger the Great Depression.
I’ve done a chart dump for you. These 18 charts show how $108 billion in tariff revenue is costing trillions in economic destruction, why China is winning by losing this trade war, and how Trump's fiscal fantasy is colliding with mathematical reality.
CHART 1 • US effective tariff rate reaches highest level since 1935
America's effective tariff rate has surged to 18.3%, the highest level since the Great Depression, marking a sixfold increase from pre-Trump levels. The 10-50% duties on imports triggered a market selloff that prompted Trump to fire the Bureau of Labor Statistics chief after disappointing jobs data. We've entered 1930s-style protectionism territory, with consequences that are only beginning to unfold.
Source: The Budget Lab
CHART 2 • Tariff rates surge from 2.5% to 27% in 2025
The journey from 2.5% baseline tariffs in January to peaks above 27% after April's "Liberation Day" has been pure chaos, with rates changing weekly as Trump negotiates on the fly. Brazil jumped from 10% to 50%, Switzerland was shocked with 39%, while the EU managed to negotiate down to 15% through last-minute concessions. Oh, I’ll mention India later.
Source: The Budget Lab
CHART 3 • Manufacturing gains while services crater in GDP impact
Manufacturing is gaining nearly 5% of GDP while services and construction face devastating 4% declines, revealing the sectoral carnage beneath Chart 1's aggregate numbers. GM is desperately scrambling to shift Mexican production stateside as it confronts $4-5 billion in annual tariff costs. America is sacrificing its competitive service economy advantage for the mirage of factory job gains that may never materialise.
Source: The Budget Lab
CHART 4 • Toyota faces $3 billion tariff hit in Q2 2025
Toyota's $3 billion quarterly tariff impact leads the automotive massacre, exceeding GM's $1.1 billion hit and Ford's $800 million damage, with the Detroit Three collectively facing $42 billion in costs. Analysts project GM's profits could crater by 79%, while companies desperately offer employee pricing to everyone and shift production in panic moves. The manufacturing "renaissance" promised in Chart 3 is actually destroying America's most iconic manufacturers.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
CHART 5 • Back to the Future: Trade Wars Redux
Today's effective tariff rate almost match the Depression-era Smoot-Hawley tariffs that helped collapse global trade by two-thirds, providing the historical context for Chart 1's alarming numbers. But unlike the 1930s gradual descent, we've speedrun to Depression-level protectionism in just seven months.
Source: The Economist
CHART 6 • Brazil hits 50% rate as reciprocal tariffs escalate
Brazil's punishment with 50% tariffs stems from its prosecution of Trump ally Bolsonaro, while Switzerland faces 39% despite good-faith negotiations. These rates represent pure political coercion rather than trade policy, weaponising commerce for diplomatic leverage. The arbitrary targeting goes far beyond the economic rationale claimed in Charts 1-5, revealing tariffs as tools of revenge. Note that this chart is now out of date. India’s tariff rate has now hit 50%. I’ll talk about that in the next chart.
Source: Economist
CHART 7 • Latest Trump tariffs show India and Brazil at 50%
The August 6 announcement doubled India's rate to 50% for buying Russian oil that America previously encouraged it to purchase for market stability, building on Chart 6's political weaponisation. China imports more Russian oil but faces lower rates, while the US continues importing Russian uranium, exposing the selective and hypocritical enforcement. These contradictions undermine the trade deficit justifications used throughout Charts 1-6.
Source: Reuters
CHART 8 • Tariff timeline shows chaotic implementation path
Seven months of administrative chaos underlies all previous charts, with rates announced, delayed, withdrawn, and reimposed seemingly at random while ships race to depart before arbitrary deadlines. The constant changes have made it impossible for businesses to price products or manage supply chains, explaining Chart 2's volatility.
Source: Financial Times
CHART 9 • Federal deficit vs tariff revenue shows massive gap
Tariffs have raised $108 billion against a $1.4 trillion deficit, making these revenue gain look trivial against America's fiscal reality. Even if maintained for a decade, the projected $2.8 trillion in tariff revenue can't meaningfully dent the $21.8 trillion in cumulative deficits ahead. The economic destruction documented in Charts 3-4 comes without any meaningful fiscal benefit to justify the pain.
Source: Financial Times
CHART 10 • Big Beautiful Bill adds $3 trillion to debt by 2034
Trump's signature tax bill adds $3.4 trillion to the national debt, completely overwhelming any revenue from Chart 9's tariffs while costing $3.7 trillion in lost tax receipts. The $2.8 trillion in decade-long tariff revenue doesn't even cover the new deficit spending from this single piece of legislation. The US is simultaneously destroying international trade while exploding deficits, achieving the worst of both fiscal worlds.
Source: Financial Times
CHART 11 • Switzerland faces 39% rate despite negotiations
Switzerland's shocking 39% rate, previewed in Chart 6, arrived on their national day after negotiators expected a 10% deal similar to Britain's, representing a stunning diplomatic betrayal. As someone who lives in Switzerland, this will go down badly with the Swiss.
The supposed trade deficit justifying this punishment is mostly gold transiting through Swiss refineries, as Chart 13 will detail. With every second franc of the Swiss economy derived from trade, these tariffs threaten existential damage to a key ally.
Source: Reuters
CHART 12 • India dominates Russian oil imports despite US pressure
India has become Russia's top oil customer by volume, importing a third of its crude from Moscow, which triggered the 50% tariffs introduced in Charts 6-7. The bitter irony is that former US Ambassador Garcetti admitted America "wanted somebody to buy Russian oil" to prevent prices hitting $130 per barrel. Now Trump punishes India for following previous US guidance while America continues importing Russian uranium and fertilisers.
Source: Bloomberg
CHART 13 • Swiss-US trade dominated by gold movements
Switzerland's $38 billion goods "deficit" driving Chart 11's punitive 39% rate is a statistical fiction created by gold merely transiting through Swiss refineries for processing. America actually runs a $20 billion services surplus with Switzerland that nearly balances overall trade, but Trump ignores services entirely. The entire justification for Swiss punishment rests on cherry-picked data that misrepresents the actual balanced relationship.
Source: Bloomberg
CHART 14 • GDP impact scenarios show 5% Mexico decline possible
Mexico faces potential 5% GDP collapse and Canada 3% decline in escalation scenarios, showing where Charts 1-5's trade war ultimately leads for America's closest partners. The US itself will see GDP shrink 0.6% by 2034 with inflation rising 0.4% annually, validating Chart 3's sectoral damage warnings. These feedback loops of inflation, higher interest rates, and a stronger dollar create a vicious spiral making Chart 9's revenue gains meaningless.
Source: Bloomberg
CHART 15 • Export dependency shows Mexico and Canada vulnerability
Mexico sends 76% of exports to America and Canada 80%, explaining the catastrophic projections in Chart 14 and giving Trump enormous but dangerous leverage. The USMCA is effectively dead as the 60-year integrated North American auto industry detailed in Chart 4 unwinds in mere months. This asymmetric dependency guarantees mutual destruction even as countries desperately seek alternative markets.
Source: Financial Times
CHART 16 • China exports surge to ASEAN amid US trade war
While America retreats behind the tariff walls documented in Charts 1-8, China is building an alternative trade architecture across Asia that excludes the US entirely. Beijing is exploiting the chaos from Charts 6-7's arbitrary targeting to lock in permanent partnerships with emerging markets. The Belt and Road investments create dependencies that will outlast any future American attempts at re-engagement.
Source: Bloomberg
CHART 17 • China dominates research in batteries and AI algorithms
China produces 76% of global battery research versus America's 6% and leads AI algorithms 29% to 12%, showing the real competition that tariff obsession ignores. DeepSeek matched GPT-4's capabilities for just $5.6 million versus OpenAI's $100+ million, demonstrating China's efficiency advantage. While Charts 1-10 focus on yesterday's manufacturing jobs, the innovation gap in tomorrow's technologies widens daily.
Source: New York Times
CHART 18 • China-EU trade imbalance grows despite tensions
Europe negotiated its US tariff down to 15% as shown in Chart 2, but only by suspending retaliation for six months in effective capitulation to Trump's demands. Meanwhile China offers Europe stable terms without constant threats, exploiting the diplomatic damage from Charts 6-7 and 11-13. The Atlantic alliance is fracturing under commercial pressure, achieving through trade wars what Beijing could never accomplish through diplomacy alone.
Source: Council on Foreign Relations